by The Orioles haven’t made the big break many were hoping for this offseason, but they added some quality players to a group that made the playoffs last year and added another reliever on Monday night.
Right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano and the Baltimore Orioles have agreed to a one-year, $13 million deal, sources tell ESPN. The 35-year-old Sugano has been one of the best pitchers in Japanese baseball this year. He posted a 1.67 ERA and struck out 16 for 111 in 156.2 innings.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 17, 2024
Let’s take a look at how Sugano helps the Orioles and the potential impact it can have from a fantasy perspective.
How good was Sugano in the NPB?
It is not at all an exaggeration to say that Sugano was one of the best pitchers in Japan during his time with the Yomiuri Giants. Over his twelve years in the league with the Giants, he compiled a record of 136-75, an ERA of 2.43, a WHIP over 1.03 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.57. He was named the Central League’s Most Valuable Player three times in his career and is also a three-time winner of the Eiji Sawamura Award; Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young Award in Major League Baseball.
That praise is nice, but of course what matters for his MLB career now is what he’s done lately. Well, last year he finished with a 15-3 record over 24 starts and 156 1/3 innings with a 1.67 ERA, a 111/16 K/BB and a 0.95 WHIP. That’s the second-best ERA of his career, so it’s safe to say Sugano was still effective in his final year in the NBP. Effective is really quite an understatement.
What made Sugano so effective?
Command, command and also command. Sugano uses his arsenal to hit the strike zone and has never had a walk rate above 2.1 per nine innings in his illustrious career. However, he’s not just a zone-filling guy; Sugano places pitches where he wants pitches and never misses his spot with any of his pitches.
And Sugano has a lot of throws that he can’t take his spots with. He displays a fastball, a sinker, a cutter, a slider and a curveball. The whole kitchen sink, as they used to say. The best of these pitches is cuter, but all of his off-speed pitches get solid grades.
If you can throw that many throws, not just for strikes but for good ones, you’re going to have a good time. Normally anyway.
What are the reasons for concern?
As impressive – if not dominant – as Sugano has been, there’s a reason he’s accepting a one-year deal, and it’s not just because he turned 35 in October.
Sugano doesn’t miss bats at the same level as a Roki Sasaki or a Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That’s in large part because he’s willing to throw himself upon contact – more on that in the second section – but also because he lacks the speed that would rank among the best in the sport. Sugano’s four-seam fastball averaged 92 mph in 2024, and it’s unlikely that mark will rise as he ages. He averaged more than one strikeout per inning in one season, and that was in 2016. In the last two seasons, his K/9 was respectfully 6.3 and 6.4
Strikeouts are important; Not only when it comes to helping pitchers get people out, but they are also an important figure in fantasy and are part of the standard category.
Has he ever played against MLB players and how did he do when he did?
He did, but it was a while ago. Sugano was unable to participate in the 2023 World Baseball Classic due to injury, but was a key contributor for Japan in 2017. He shared the strikeout lead in the tournament with Kodai Senga and was sensational in the semifinals against Team USA with six innings and six strikeouts while allowing just one unearned run.
Again, that was seven years ago, but it gives you an idea of how Sugano’s stuff can work without elite heating.
Where does he fit in the Baltimore rotation and how does his home park fit him?
Some of this depends on whether Corbin Burnes comes back. If Burnes returns to the land of crab cakes, he’s obviously the trump card. There have been rumors that Baltimore is interested in reuniting with Jack Flaherty and replacing Burnes, and he would likely be at the top of the rotation in that scenario as well.
In any case, Sugano will not be at the helm of the Baltimore group. Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin could also get the nod ahead of him, so it’s likely Sugano will be the O’s third or fourth starter heading into 2025. That doesn’t matter, except it’s possible he makes one or two fewer starts than some pitchers you might be considering.
As for the park, it’s worth noting that Baltimore is making changes to the left field fence to make it more favorable to hitters – or more accurately, just to correct for an overcorrection with the previous adjustment – but that shouldn’t matter much. Even with a mediocre fastball in terms of velocity, he is a pitcher who keeps the ball on the ground with a 51.1 percent grounder rate.
So is Sugano someone fantasy managers should target?
Yes. Just not particularly early. There are exceptions to every rule, and Sugano is one who represents an exception to the rule that you shouldn’t go against hurlers who don’t miss a lot of shots. They don’t have the success that Sugano had with a lot of luck at BABIP; not as many years as he did. Is the NBP as good a league as the MLB? Of course not, but there are really, really good players in Japan and to say he was one of the very best is quite an understatement. I’d rather pick him as my SP3 – or ideally my SP4 – than someone to lead my fantasy rotation, but I’d much rather draft Sugano early and cut bait later than miss out on him. The fact that Baltimore will give him plenty of chances to win with this young, talented roster doesn’t hurt either.
