by DETROIT – In his comments after Sunday’s 48-42 loss to Buffalo, Lions coach Dan Campbell acknowledged his decision to attempt an onside kick despite still trailing by 10 points with a full 12 minutes left in the game , didn’t rise.
Some considered the move risky, reckless and analytically unsound. That happens a lot with Campbell, who is known for his aggressiveness, which often finds himself at odds with old-school conservative football minds and modern number crunchers.
His critics found “I told you so” a consolation in his admission, although he said it wasn’t his strategy he regretted, just the outcome of the game – Buffalo’s Mack Hollins grabbed the bouncing ball on the fly and hit it back 38 yards to the Lions’ 5-yard line.
“Obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, we’re now sitting there and dealing with it [five] Yard line, yeah, I wish I hadn’t done that,” Campbell said. “But it is what it is.”
And it doesn’t change.
In fact, it’s likely to increase as injuries continue to decimate the Lions’ roster – the most recent being star running back David Montgomery, who likely lost the season with a torn ACL in his knee.
The most telling insight into Campbell’s thinking came later in the press conference when he rejected the excuse that injuries to the Lions defense – which lost three more players on Sunday and 15 previously on injured reserve – were the reason for their loss to the Bills had been.
Campbell said it wasn’t on his mind.
“I think a lot more about finding ways to win games,” Campbell said.
It’s because of this philosophy that Campbell has become the most fascinating coach in the NFL – constantly trying to find ways to win games.
Of course, this applies to all trainers. Campbell takes it to the extreme with a combination of science (analytics) and art (his feel for the flow of the game). Mostly it’s about control, and Campbell wants as much of it as possible.
Campbell knows the numbers, but he is not married to them, is not dominated by them, and is not afraid of them. He seems to understand the inherent problem of analysis, especially in a game like football with countless variables.
The prospects for success from many past situations do not necessarily apply to a particular situation. The percentage at which, for example, a fourth and a three-pointer are converted per NFL total is one thing, the percentage at which, for example, Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce prevails against a tiring defense or a third-line center is one thing other.
While Campbell is loath to admit a flaw in his team, one of the reasons he responded on fourth down so often in recent years was because the Lions’ offense was far superior to the Lions’ defense. It’s better if Jared Goff and Co. determine things.
That’s why Sunday’s decision wasn’t a stupid one, but a different one. The Lions’ MASH unit defense seemed unable to stop the Bills and Josh Allen, especially early in drives when Buffalo was able to stretch the secondary and expose Detroit’s particularly vulnerable linebackers.
Up to this point in the game, they had forced one Buffalo punt in nine possessions. Otherwise, the closest they came to stopping the Bills was a few field goals closer to the end zone. Every feel for the game suggested there was a slim chance of going deep and scoring a three-pointer. Field position wasn’t that important. Even if Campbell’s gamble didn’t pay off, a typical onside kick leads to a recovery in midfield. Allen would settle there. Campbell gave up 25 to 35 yards of field position for a chance to recover the ball.
“I thought we were going to get possession of the ball,” Campbell said. “I thought we were going to get the ball.”
That’s how he sees things. This is how he will continue to see things.
Montgomery’s absence will only exacerbate this. If Campbell had his full roster – which no team in the NFL’s war of attrition is likely to get – he could certainly play the game in a more traditional manner.
Step into the end zone and let Aiden Hutchinson, Levi Onwuzurike, Marcus Davenport, Alim McNeill and so on attack Josh Allen. However, all of these guys were injured. Therefore, conceding that Allen would gain 30 yards early in the drive was a reasonable compromise. Instead, he got burned by a wild ball impact and an excellent play by Hollins.
Still, Detroit had a chance at the end for one last onside kick and a possible miracle comeback.
So Campbell tried to win the game using every means at his disposal.
With Montgomery now without one reliable offensive weapon due to his injury, it’s obvious that Campbell will be more aggressive – on fourth down, with trick plays or with various strategies.
Consider that the Lions scored on Sunday with a pass to offensive lineman Dan Skipper, who had already declared himself eligible to play four times in the game, only to actually run a route until the fifth time.
With Campbell, it’s always something because something can mean everything and the only thing is winning the game – not the post-game analysis.
