by After being signed by the Mets Juan Soto In the biggest deal in sports history, it was expected that a dam had broken. Surely the winter meetings would be crazy and there would be an avalanche of signings. But the meetings, as in recent years, were largely duds.
And while there have been some big moves since signing Soto, including being signed by the Yankees Max Fried and act for Devin Williamsand the Red Sox make a deal Garrett CrochetWhen it comes to major off-season moves, the situation is largely stagnant.
That includes Pete Alonsowhose market was quiet – at least when it came to leaks about interested teams.
In addition to Alonso, there are a number of big free agents including Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Christian Walker, Teoscar Hernandez, Roki Sasaki (who won’t sign until January), Sean Manaea, Walker Buhler, Carlos EstevezAnd Tanner Scott. There are also many trading candidates to choose from, such as: Cody Bellinger, Dylan Stop it, Luis CastilloAnd Jesus Luzardo.
So at some point something has to give, perhaps with a series of changes over the next week or so before things slow down (and perhaps grind to a halt) for the holidays.
There is still a lot of work to be done for the Mets.
They need to add at least one (and ideally two) legitimate starting pitchers to a rotation full of question marks. And one of those pitchers should be able to pitch near the top of the rotation.
They need to bolster a bullpen that currently has three guarantees and not much else.
They have to decide whether to act Starling Marte and/or Jeff McNeil.
And they need to find a first baseman or, if first base isn’t addressed, a third baseman Mark Vientos can switch to the first.
Because as much as the Soto addition changes the Mets’ lineup, they are still missing a big hitter. And when you research the market, consider how David Stearns Working with Alonso and using common sense to predict what will happen to Alonso, a return to Queens seems to be the obvious outcome.
First, let’s look at it from the Mets’ perspective…
Regardless of how the Soto situation played out, it was nearly impossible to imagine them signing Fried or Burnes. Mega deals for pitchers on the wrong end of 30 almost never work. So it was very likely that no salary was ever included in such a deal. The same goes for a big money broker like Scott or Estevez. The Mets already have one of these Edwin Diaz.
So the Mets aren’t expected to break the bank for a “big” starter (the assumption here is that they sign someone like Buehler, re-sign Manaea, and/or trade for someone like Castillo or Cease) or “big.” As a relief, there is only one major free agency or trade move that makes sense: a first baseman or third baseman.
That could be Bellinger, but the Mets have no connection to him — and the Yanks have been working on a deal. It could be Walker, but he’s starting his season at age 34 and could get a contract that takes him to age 36 or 37.
Bregman makes sense if the deal is right (think five or six years), but his market will apparently go beyond that, as he has left the Astros’ reported six-year offer, about $156 million, on the table so far.
So… Alonso?
As it currently stands, Vientos Sotos is the primary guard in the lineup. And while Vientos had a breakout season in 2024 and has supernatural power, the Mets can’t rely on him to be an .800-plus OPS player. Maybe he is, and there’s no reason to think he won’t continue to be fine. But as mentioned above, the Mets are missing a big hitter in the lineup.
Now the emotional part.
Alonso is a homegrown Met, is beloved by a large portion of the fan base and is poised to break the Mets’ franchise home run record in 2025 if he re-signs. And when Alonso – who has repeatedly spoken of his love for the city and the fans – returns, he will be involved Brandon Nimmo as a possible career Met.
The Mets reportedly offered Alonso a seven-year, $158 million extension through the 2023 season. This would have bought out his final arbitration year (2024) and would have made him worth $22.5 million annually through 2030.
So perhaps some common ground can be found here if the Mets (under the same ownership but with different head of baseball operations) offer Alonso something like $125 million for five years or $150 million for six years.
Stearns and Steve Cohen have made it clear that they want Alonso back. And while you can dismiss some of this as front office talk if you want to think cynically, there’s no reason for the Mets to be so open about their desire to keep Alonso if that desire doesn’t exist. If they just said all this nicely, they could remain vague. But they weren’t.
Now let’s examine this from Alonso’s perspective…
Alonso and his agent Scott Boras want to make a huge deal, which is their right. But it’s really hard to imagine a scenario in which Alonso’s market spirals out of control – not when he’s entering his age-30 season, coming off two relatively weak years and not being a plus defender.
Freddie Freemana much better all-around hitter than Alonso and a Gold Glove first baseman, received a six-year, $162 million contract from the Dodgers before his age-32 season.
Matt Olsonwho is also a better all-around hitter than Alonso and a Gold Glove first baseman, signed an eight-year, $168 million contract extension with the Braves ahead of his age-28 season.
So it’s fair to assume that Alonso could reach his peak with six years and a salary commitment at or slightly below what Freeman and Olson received. But that would probably require a hot market. In addition to Alonso, available first basemen include Bellinger via trade and Walker via free agency, as well as short-term free agent options Paul Goldschmidt And Carlos Santana This means that supply could exceed demand.
Some have linked the Yanks to Alonso, but he makes little sense in a lineup that already features two right-handed power hitters over 30 who hit at a relatively high pace (Aaron Richter And Giancarlo Stanton).
Maybe the Giants will be interested if they don’t sign Burnes, or the Mariners if they free up some money. Maybe a team like the Angels offers something crazy. But if not, how long can Alonso wait? And what does he want?
It’s obvious that he wants to continue to be a part of the Mets, especially considering what they’re building.
The easiest way to put this is that Alonso seems as good a fit for the Mets as the Mets did for Alonso. And when you strip away all the outside noise, the Mets-Alonso game becomes too clear to ignore. It makes too much sense for it not to happen. But for this to happen, one side will have to blink sooner rather than later.
